What Is +EV Betting?
Expected value (EV) is how much a bet wins or loses on average if you could make it thousands of times. A +EV bet pays more than its real chance deserves.
The idea in one example
A fair coin lands heads 50% of the time. If someone pays you +110 (win $110 on a $100 bet) every time it lands heads, you win $110 half the time and lose $100 half the time. On average that is +$5 per bet: a +5% EV bet. You will still lose plenty of single flips. Over hundreds of them, the math wins.
Where the edge comes from
Sportsbooks and pick'em apps set prices, and they are not all equally sharp. When one book is slow to move, or a pick'em app keeps a line that the sharpest books have already moved past, the price you can bet is better than the real chance. That gap is the edge.
How to measure it
- Find the fair chance: the sharpest market's price with the book's margin removed (see vig and fair odds).
- Compare it to the price you can bet.
- EV = (chance × what you win) − (miss chance × your stake).
Example: fair chance 55%, you can bet +100. EV = 0.55 × $100 − 0.45 × $100 = +$10 per $100, or +10%.
What +EV is not
- It is not a lock. A 55% play loses 45% of the time.
- It is not the same as a favorite. A −300 favorite can be −EV; a +250 underdog can be +EV.
- It needs volume. The edge shows up over many bets, which is why bet sizing matters.
How ChalkEdge helps
The EV+ tab compares every price we track against the sharp fair line and only shows bets with a real edge. You can check any bet yourself with the free EV calculator.
More guides
Put it to work
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