How Pick'em Payouts Work
Pick'em apps don't show odds on each pick. They pay a fixed multiplier on the whole entry, and that multiplier decides how good each pick has to be.
Power vs Flex
A Power (all-or-nothing) entry pays only if every pick hits. A Flex entry pays a smaller amount even with one or two misses. Flex feels safer, but it usually needs a similar or higher hit rate per pick to be worth it.
The break-even number
Every payout table has a break-even win % per pick. Take a 2-pick PrizePicks Power Play that pays 3x: both picks must hit, so each needs about 57.7% (because 0.577 × 0.577 × 3 ≈ 1). A 6-pick Flex at 25x / 2x / 0.4x needs about 54.2% per pick.
If your picks average below the break-even number, the entry loses money over time, no matter how good it looks.
Why −119 keeps coming up
The break-even chance of about 54.3% equals sportsbook odds of about −119. That is why pick'em players compare each pick to a sportsbook price of −119: a pick the sharp books price better than that is helping the entry.
Things that change the math
- Correlated picks: two picks from the same match tend to win or lose together.
- Demons and goblins: changed lines often come with changed payouts.
- Payout changes: apps update tables. Your app's entry screen is always the final word.
Check your entry
The free Pick'em EV calculator shows your entry's EV, the chance every pick hits and the break-even number. It can load your ChalkEdge slip in one tap.
More guides
Put it to work
Every number in these guides is on ChalkEdge for tennis, esports, UFC, darts, table tennis and cricket, updated all day.