Prediction Markets Explained
On exchanges like Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig you buy a contract that pays $1 if it wins. The price in cents is the market's chance.
Cents are chances
A contract priced 62¢ pays $1 if it wins, so the market gives it a 62% chance. As sportsbook odds that is about −163. A 40¢ contract is about +150.
Fees change the price
Some exchanges charge a small fee on each trade. Kalshi's taker fee, for example, is 7% × P × (1 − P) per contract, which turns that 62¢ contract into about −175. Always compare prices with fees included.
Liquidity: how much you can bet
An exchange price is only as good as the money behind it. If only $20 is offered at a price, a bigger bet gets a worse price. ChalkEdge shows the dollars available on each side next to every prediction-market price.
How they compare to sportsbooks
- There is often no built-in vig, so prices can be fairer.
- You trade with other people, not the house.
- Rules and availability differ by state and country: check the exchange's terms.
Convert any price
Use the free Prediction Market Converter to turn cents into odds and back, with fees.
More guides
Put it to work
Every number in these guides is on ChalkEdge for tennis, esports, UFC, darts, table tennis and cricket, updated all day.