Every time the DFS Optimizer shows a +EV card (not model-only, not CHECK LINE), ChalkEdge saves the fair chance and edge it showed at that moment. After the match we check two things:
Beat the close: did the sportsbooks move toward our pick before the start? Pros treat this as the best early sign an edge is real, long before wins and losses even out.
Hit rate: did the pick win, compared with the fair chance we showed and the app's break-even (54.3% on a 6-pick flex)? It takes a few hundred picks for this to settle, so read small samples with care.
Results are split by how the card was priced: a sportsbook price at the same line, a price shifted from a nearby line, or esports maps added up. Updated about every 10 minutes.
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