UFC Vegas 124 Upset Picks and Props: Walker by KO, Raposo, Elekana and the Best Method Bets
The underdogs worth a look at UFC Vegas 124 and the method-of-victory and distance props that fit each matchup.
UFC Vegas 124 is a card with big favorites: Ko is around -769, Milosevic -500, and three more fighters are -280 or shorter. That pushes value toward a few live underdogs and toward method-of-victory props, where you get a better price than laying the moneyline. Here are the spots we like for Saturday, Nov. 7, at the Meta APEX.
Underdogs worth a look
Johnny Walker (+190) vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta. Walker has the highest finish rate in the main event (85% of his wins) and just knocked out Mick Parkin in the first round of his heavyweight return. Cortes Acosta does not wrestle much, so Walker gets to stand and swing. The problem is durability: Walker has been stopped six times. That is why we would rather bet Walker by KO/TKO than Walker to win: if he wins, it is almost certainly early, and the method price pays more.
Mitch Raposo (+185) vs. Marcos Degli. Degli is 15-3 but makes his UFC debut on short notice; the line has already moved from -300 toward Raposo. RotoWire's Cole Shelton also lists Raposo as his underdog pick. Our favorite dog on the card.
Billy Elekana (+260) vs. Lucas Fernando. Three straight wins, and rg.org lists him as a small value play. We still pick Fernando, but at +260 Elekana is a reasonable small-stake shot if you think Fernando's reach edge is overrated.
Jose Delano (about even money) vs. Murtazali Magomedov. Delano opened +157 and has been bet to roughly a pick'em against the unbeaten Magomedov. When a line moves that far, the market likes him; at even money we agree.
Davey Grant (+250) vs. Elijah Smith. SB Nation's Andrew Richardson picks Grant by decision. Grant has never been knocked out in 26 fights, so if he survives the early pressure he has a path. We pick Smith, but we would not bet Smith inside the distance.
Props that fit the matchups
- Suarez vs. Jandiroba goes the distance. Jandiroba has one KO in 27 fights and 7 of her last 8 went to decision; Suarez wins by controlling position. Suarez by decision is our main pick.
- Karine Silva by decision (RotoWire lists it around +150). All five of Silva's last fights went to the scorecards.
- Kondratavicius inside the distance. Eight finishes in nine wins against Petroski, who took the fight on short notice and has lost three straight.
- Fernando by KO/TKO. SB Nation also expects an early finish.
- Smith vs. Grant over 2.5 rounds. Grant's chin keeps fights long.
Parlay idea
Kondratavicius and Fernando together come out near -130 (RotoWire). Adding Ko makes it shorter but safer. We would not include the main event in a parlay: Walker's early knockout power makes Cortes Acosta riskier than his price suggests.
Our picks
- Walker by KO/TKO (small stake)
- Raposo to win
- Delano to win
- Suarez vs. Jandiroba to go the distance
- Karine Silva by decision
- Kondratavicius inside the distance
Our full card predictions and line moves are in UFC Vegas 124 Final Picks. Fighter numbers and props are on our UFC props page. Free picks every day in our Discord.
For information and entertainment only. Odds change; check your book before betting. 21+ where required. Please gamble responsibly.
Sources: rg.org - UFC Vegas 124 odds and picks · RotoWire - UFC Vegas 124 best bets · SB Nation / Yahoo - UFC Vegas 124 predictions · MMAOddsBreaker - opening odds · UFCalendar - Cortes Acosta vs. Walker
Predictions are ChalkEdge's opinion from the data available when this was written, not a guarantee. Lines and lineups change: check the current line before you play.