UFC Vegas 124 Final Picks: Line Moves, Late Changes and Every Fight on the Cortes Acosta vs. Walker Card
Final picks for all 14 fights at UFC Vegas 124, with the biggest betting line moves since opening and every late card change.
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker goes Saturday, Nov. 7, at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Prelims start at 5 p.m. ET and the main card at 8 p.m. ET. We already broke down the card when it was announced; this is the fight-week update: where the money has moved, what changed, and our final pick for every bout. Weigh-ins are Friday, so check back if anyone misses weight.
Late changes to know
- New main event. Sean Brady pulled out of his headliner with Gabriel Bonfim with a staph infection in his knee, and the UFC moved Waldo Cortes Acosta vs. Johnny Walker to the top.
- Andre Petroski replaced Wes Schultz against Mantas Kondratavicius.
- Thomas Petersen replaced Alvin Hines against Gabriel Lorenco.
- Carlos Calderon replaces Lucas Brennan (torn ACL) against Austin Bashi, announced Nov. 4.
The biggest line moves
Comparing offshore openers to DraftKings this week:
- Seokhyeon Ko went from about -350 to -769 against Wellington Turman, the biggest move on the card. Turman has lost three straight and hasn't fought since December 2023.
- Mantas Kondratavicius opened as a pick'em (-108) and is now around -286 against Petroski.
- Lucas Fernando moved from -225 to about -323 against Billy Elekana.
- Jose Delano went from a +157 underdog to roughly even money against unbeaten Murtazali Magomedov.
- Johnny Walker is the interesting one: he opened near +247, was bet down early, then drifted back out to +190 at DraftKings (+180 at FanDuel and BetRivers).
Main card picks
Cortes Acosta (-233) vs. Walker (+190), heavyweight, 5 rounds. Walker finishes 85% of his wins but 6 of his 10 losses came by knockout too. Cortes Acosta is bigger, rarely wrestles and is coming off two decision losses to elite heavyweights. Walker is live early; after the first round the fight tilts toward the bigger, fresher man. Pick: Cortes Acosta. Best Walker angle: by KO, not to win straight.
Tatiana Suarez (-204) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+170), strawweight. Suarez lands 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and has lost only to Weili Zhang. Jandiroba is a dangerous grappler off her back, but 7 of her last 8 fights went to the cards and she has one KO in 27 fights. Pick: Suarez by decision.
Elijah Smith (-312) vs. Davey Grant (+250), bantamweight. Smith is 24, unbeaten in the UFC and finishing people. Grant is 40 but has never been knocked out. Pick: Smith, and we lean toward it going the distance.
Seokhyeon Ko (-769) vs. Wellington Turman (+525), welterweight. The price is steep for a reason. Pick: Ko, but don't lay -769 straight; use him in a parlay.
Lucas Fernando (-323) vs. Billy Elekana (+260), light heavyweight. Fernando is the former LFA champion with the reach edge; Elekana has won three straight. Pick: Fernando, by KO/TKO.
Mantas Kondratavicius (-286) vs. Andre Petroski (+230), middleweight. Eight finishes in nine wins against a man on a three-fight skid who took the fight on short notice. Pick: Kondratavicius inside the distance.
Prelim picks
- Gabriel Lorenco vs. Thomas Petersen (HW): one report has this flipped to Petersen as the favorite after the opponent change; confirm the price before betting. Pick: Lorenco, only at plus money.
- Karine Silva (-220) vs. Gabriella Fernandes (+180): Silva's last five fights all went the distance. Pick: Silva by decision.
- Mitch Raposo (+185) vs. Marcos Degli (-225): Degli makes his UFC debut. Pick: Raposo as our favorite underdog of the prelims.
- Murtazali Magomedov vs. Jose Delano: close to a pick'em now. Pick: Delano.
- Keiichiro Nakamura (-360) vs. Ollie Schmid: Pick: Nakamura.
- Austin Bashi vs. Carlos Calderon: late replacement. Pick: Bashi.
- Nina Milosevic (-500) vs. Priscila Cachoeira: Pick: Milosevic.
- Jose Henrique Souza (-225) vs. Jonny Parsons: Pick: Souza.
Our picks
- Cortes Acosta over Walker
- Suarez over Jandiroba (decision)
- Smith over Grant
- Ko over Turman
- Fernando over Elekana (KO/TKO)
- Kondratavicius over Petroski (inside the distance)
- Silva, Raposo, Delano, Nakamura, Bashi, Milosevic and Souza on the prelims
Fighter-by-fighter numbers (finish rates, rounds, decisions) are on our UFC props page and the Walker vs. Cortes Acosta matchup page. Our upset and props picks for the card are in a separate article. Free picks every day in our Discord.
For information and entertainment only. Odds change; check your book before betting. 21+ where required. Please gamble responsibly.
Sources: Cageside Press - UFC Vegas 124 loses Bonfim vs. Brady · MMAOddsBreaker - UFC Vegas 124 opening odds · rg.org - UFC Vegas 124 odds · RotoWire - UFC Vegas 124 best bets · AgentMMA - Calderon vs. Bashi set · UFCalendar - start times and card
Predictions are ChalkEdge's opinion from the data available when this was written, not a guarantee. Lines and lineups change: check the current line before you play.