Paris Masters 2026 Quarterfinal Predictions: Shelton vs. Paul, Alcaraz and the Last Two Turin Spots
Our picks for the Paris Masters quarterfinals and what each result means for the final two places at the ATP Finals.
The Rolex Paris Masters reaches the quarterfinals on Friday, Nov. 6, at La Défense Arena, with the final on Sunday, Nov. 8. It has already been a week of upsets: Lorenzo Musetti knocked out top seed Alexander Zverev in his opening match, Rinky Hijikata beat Novak Djokovic 2-6, 6-3, 6-3, and Jannik Sinner withdrew before the event with a right knee injury that ends his season. That leaves Carlos Alcaraz (2) and Ben Shelton (3) as the top seeds still standing.
The race to Turin
Six players have qualified for the ATP Finals (Nov. 15–22): Zverev, Alcaraz, Shelton, Medvedev, Cobolli and Arthur Fils, who clinched on Wednesday. Two spots are left, and Paris decides them. In the race: Frances Tiafoe 3,390 points, Jodar 3,234, Taylor Fritz 2,950 and Tommy Paul 2,825. Tiafoe and Jodar are already out of the Paris draw, so they can only wait.
- Fritz needs the semifinals to pass Jodar, and the final to pass Tiafoe.
- Paul needs the final to pass Jodar, or the title to pass Tiafoe.
- Tiafoe is in unless Paul wins the title by beating Fritz in the final.
Fritz played Fils on Thursday night in the round of 16; if Fritz lost, Paul is the only player left who can change the order.
Ben Shelton vs. Tommy Paul
The best quarterfinal on paper, between two Americans with a lot riding on it. Paul held every service game in beating home hope Gregoire Halys 7-6(3), 6-4 and has to keep winning to reach Turin. Shelton came back from a set down against Arthur Rinderknech, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(5). Indoors, Shelton's lefty serve is a huge weapon; Paul is the better mover and returner and will try to drag him into rallies. Shelton is already qualified, so Paul has more to play for, but Shelton has the bigger game on a quick court. Pick: Shelton in three sets. Over 22.5 games and a tiebreak are both worth a look; both men are holding serve well.
Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz reached the quarterfinals without hitting a ball in the round of 16 after Matteo Berrettini withdrew with arm pain. Fresh legs are an advantage this late in the season. With Sinner and Zverev gone, he is the clear favorite for the title. Pick: Alcaraz to win his quarterfinal and the tournament.
The rest of the draw
The other quarterfinals were set by Thursday's late matches: Musetti vs. Van Assche, Hijikata vs. Etcheverry, Struff vs. Ruud, Borges vs. Buse and Fils vs. Fritz. Musetti is the form player of the bottom half after beating Zverev, and Fils will have the Paris crowd behind him if he got through.
Our picks
- Shelton over Paul
- Alcaraz to win his quarterfinal
- Title: Alcaraz
- Turin: Tiafoe takes one of the last two spots
Player numbers, game totals and aces props are on our tennis props page. For the women, see our WTA Finals predictions. Free picks every day in our Discord.
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Sources: Wikipedia - 2026 Rolex Paris Masters · ATP Tour - Djokovic vs. Hijikata · Tennis Majors - Paul ends Halys run · Tennis Majors - Shelton vs. Rinderknech · Tennis Majors - Race to Turin daily · ATP Tour - Turin qualification scenarios · Sky Sports - Alcaraz into quarterfinals
Predictions are ChalkEdge's opinion from the data available when this was written, not a guarantee. Lines and lineups change: check the current line before you play.