UFC Fight Night Vegas 124 Predictions: Cortes Acosta vs Walker Pick & Full Card
Picks for all 14 fights at UFC Vegas 124, headlined by Waldo Cortes Acosta vs. Johnny Walker and Suarez vs. Jandiroba.
The UFC wraps up its Apex run this Saturday, November 7, with UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker (also billed as UFC Vegas 124) at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. The prelims are scheduled for 5 p.m. ET and the main card follows at 8 p.m. ET.
This was not the card the UFC planned. The original headliner was a welterweight fight between Sean Brady and Gabriel Bonfim, but Brady pulled out last week. He has said the problem turned out to be a staph infection that started from a small cut. No replacement could be found for Bonfim, who has won five straight, so the promotion moved quickly and booked a heavyweight fight on short notice: Waldo Cortes Acosta against Johnny Walker.
The new main event comes with a lot of knockout risk, and there is a real title-picture fight underneath it. No. 2 strawweight Tatiana Suarez meets No. 3 Virna Jandiroba, and the winner has a strong argument for a shot at champion Mackenzie Dern. Below we go through all 14 announced bouts with a pick for each one. The odds we mention were early numbers and will move this week, so check the line moves page before you lock anything in.
Main card
Waldo Cortes Acosta vs. Johnny Walker (Heavyweight)
Cortes Acosta (17-4) was one of the hottest heavyweights in the sport not long ago. He put together three straight knockouts over Ante Delija, Shamil Gaziev and Derrick Lewis, and the Gaziev fight came on three days' notice. Since then he has dropped back-to-back decisions to Alexander Volkov in May and Curtis Blaydes in September. Walker (23-10, 1 NC) is a former light heavyweight contender. He moved up to heavyweight at UFC 332 in October and flattened Mick Parkin with knees in the first round, only about five weeks before this fight.
Cortes Acosta opened as roughly a -190 favorite. He is the bigger, more durable heavyweight and he works at a pace most big men can't keep up with. Walker has the reach, the athleticism and the weird angles, but his chin has failed him in several losses. Pick: Cortes Acosta. Our full breakdown of this fight is in a separate main-event preview.
Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba (Women's Strawweight)
This is the fight that matters most for the division. Suarez (13-1), a former TUF winner, has one loss, which came against Weili Zhang in a title fight. In April she got through some early trouble and submitted Loopy Godinez in the second round. Jandiroba (23-4) is a BJJ black belt and former Invicta champion. She lost a five-round fight to Dern for the vacant belt and then bounced back with a decision win over Tabatha Ricci.
Suarez is about a -205 favorite. Jandiroba is dangerous off her back and in scrambles, but Suarez's wrestling is the best in the division, and she is the more physical fighter. We expect long stretches of top control from Suarez, plus enough ground strikes to win the rounds clearly. Pick: Suarez by decision.
Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith (Bantamweight)
Grant (18-8) is a longtime UFC bantamweight from England who is known for tough, ugly fights and a lot of heart. Smith (10-1) is the younger prospect and the clear betting favorite at around -258. Grant has been in deep water many times and rarely gets broken, but at this stage of his career speed and volume are a problem for him. Pick: Smith. A decision is the safer way to bet it, because Grant is hard to put away.
Seokhyeon Ko vs. Wellington Turman (Welterweight)
This is the biggest favorite on the card. Ko (13-3) is around -750 against Brazil's Turman (18-8). Ko is a powerful, technical striker from South Korea. Turman is a grappler who has bounced between middleweight and welterweight. If Turman can't get the fight to the mat early, the striking gap should grow with every round. At that price, Ko is better used as a parlay piece or a method prop than as a straight bet. Pick: Ko.
Billy Elekana vs. Lucas Fernando (Light Heavyweight)
Fernando (14-3) is roughly a -305 favorite over Elekana (10-2). The Brazilian has the deeper resume and the market trusts him to win most exchanges. Elekana is live as an underdog only if he can make it a grinding fight along the fence. Pick: Fernando.
Mantas Kondratavičius vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight)
The main card opens with Lithuania's Kondratavičius (9-1), around a -285 favorite, against veteran grappler Petroski (13-7). Petroski's path is to wrestle and grind, and he has been in with tougher opposition. The market is betting on the younger fighter's power and upside. We agree, but we wouldn't lay big juice on it. Pick: Kondratavičius.
Prelims
Gabriel Lorenço vs. Thomas Petersen (Heavyweight)
This is one of the closest lines on the card. Petersen (11-5) is about -155 and Lorenço (8-1) is around +130. Heavyweight prelims with two fighters early in their UFC careers often come down to who lands first, and Petersen's experience edge is the tiebreaker for us. Pick: Petersen. Fight doesn't go the distance is worth a look if it's priced fairly.
Karine Silva vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flyweight)
This is a ranked all-Brazilian fight: No. 11 Silva (19-7) against No. 14 Fernandes (11-4). Silva's submission game makes her a threat in every grappling exchange, and she is about a -218 favorite. Fernandes needs to keep it standing and stay busy. Pick: Silva.
Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli (Flyweight)
Degli (15-3) is around a -225 favorite over Raposo (11-3). Raposo has the speed to make this competitive, but Degli's overall experience and grappling give him more ways to win. Pick: Degli.
Jose Delano vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight)
This is close to a pick'em, with both sides near -110. Magomedov is unbeaten at 11-0, and Delano (17-3) is the more experienced pro. Undefeated records can be padded, but the market treats Magomedov as a genuine prospect, and we lean his way in a fight that could go either direction. Pick: Magomedov (small lean).
Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight)
Japan's Nakamura (8-1) is about a -360 favorite against New Zealand's Schmid (4-3). On paper the experience and record gap is wide, and Schmid's 4-3 mark is unusual for a UFC roster spot. Pick: Nakamura.
Austin Bashi vs. Lucas Brennan (Featherweight)
This is a fight between two young American featherweights: Bashi (14-2) and Brennan (11-3). Odds were not posted when we checked, so watch for the opening number. Bashi has the better record and is the more natural featherweight on paper. Pick: Bashi (lean, pending odds).
Priscila Cachoeira vs. Nina Milošević (Women's Bantamweight)
Serbia's Milošević (9-1) is a big favorite, around -500, against the aggressive Brazilian veteran Cachoeira (13-9). Cachoeira will throw heavy shots from the opening bell, which makes her dangerous early, but she has struggled with technical opponents. Pick: Milošević.
Jonny Parsons vs. José Souza (Welterweight)
The opener features Parsons (9-3) against the Brazilian Souza (9-1). Some outlets list him as Jose Henrique. Souza is around a -218 favorite. Parsons has the experience, but the market likes the Brazilian's finishing ability and his one-loss record. Pick: Souza.
Betting angles for the card
- Heavy favorites stack up. Ko, Milošević, Nakamura and Fernando all opened at -300 or shorter. They are better used as parlay legs, or bet through method props, than played straight.
- Heavyweight volatility. Both heavyweight fights carry real knockout risk. Don't overload a card on heavyweight favorites.
- Late changes. This card has already lost its original main event. Check the bout order and weigh-in results on Friday before you finalize anything.
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Our picks
- Cortes Acosta over Walker
- Suarez over Jandiroba (decision)
- Smith over Grant
- Ko over Turman
- Fernando over Elekana
- Kondratavičius over Petroski
- Petersen over Lorenço
- Silva over Fernandes
- Degli over Raposo
- Magomedov over Delano (small lean)
- Nakamura over Schmid
- Bashi over Brennan (lean)
- Milošević over Cachoeira
- Souza over Parsons
Picks are for information and entertainment only and are not guaranteed. 21+ (18+ where permitted). If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sources: UFC.com - UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker · ESPN Fightcenter - UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · MMA Sucka - Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker set as new UFC Vegas 124 main event · MMA Sucka - Suarez vs. Jandiroba could be title eliminator · Cageside Press - Suarez submits Godinez at UFC 327
Predictions are ChalkEdge's opinion from the data available when this was written, not a guarantee. Lines and lineups change: check the current line before you play.